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The headline number is absolutely kind of a shock, I think the bond market is probably overreacting. It's a bounce back from September, but we're still not gaining back all the ground lost in September. The underlying trend is still kind of down. - Bill Cheney Quotes

The headline number is absolutely kind of a shock, I think the bond market is probably overreacting. It's a bounce back from September, but we're still not gaining back all the ground lost in September. The underlying trend is still kind of down.

Given the absence of core inflation, it seems to me as good a time as any to pause and see what's happening for a few months rather than overshoot and risk a recession. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Given the absence of core inflation, it seems to me as good a time as any to pause and see what's happening for a few months rather than overshoot and risk a recession.

Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.

Force

[Friday's report] probably reduces the odds of the Fed making another move [at its next meeting]. This is fairly benign report; it would have taken something a bit worse than this to get the Fed to move again. - Bill Cheney Quotes

[Friday's report] probably reduces the odds of the Fed making another move [at its next meeting]. This is fairly benign report; it would have taken something a bit worse than this to get the Fed to move again.

The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now. - Bill Cheney Quotes

The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now.

We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum. - Bill Cheney Quotes

We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum.

This is a perfect jobs report. Job growth slowed significantly and there are absolutely no signs of inflation. Greenspan may be pulling off what once seemed impossible: two soft landings in one economic expansion. - Bill Cheney Quotes

This is a perfect jobs report. Job growth slowed significantly and there are absolutely no signs of inflation. Greenspan may be pulling off what once seemed impossible: two soft landings in one economic expansion.

There really is no inflation problem right now, and there's certainly nothing in the pipeline, with the economy as weak as it is. - Bill Cheney Quotes

There really is no inflation problem right now, and there's certainly nothing in the pipeline, with the economy as weak as it is.

I don't think the Fed is under pressure to raise rates faster than they have been but I think they'd be crazy to think that they should be done tightening. - Bill Cheney Quotes

I don't think the Fed is under pressure to raise rates faster than they have been but I think they'd be crazy to think that they should be done tightening.

It's another in the long series of the no-news-is-good-news story about inflation. - Bill Cheney Quotes

It's another in the long series of the no-news-is-good-news story about inflation.

It reflects that people mostly still have their jobs, still have their money and people are still buying houses. - Bill Cheney Quotes

It reflects that people mostly still have their jobs, still have their money and people are still buying houses.

Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.

Unless we're missing something, the unemployment rate will be shooting back up again very soon. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Unless we're missing something, the unemployment rate will be shooting back up again very soon.

But that's still largely a hope, not a certainty. - Bill Cheney Quotes

But that's still largely a hope, not a certainty.

As long as unemployment is relatively high ... the Fed is under no pressure to start tightening. Right now, you have to think they've really won the war on inflation -- they're at least as worried about deflation as inflation at this point. They're not going to do anything that would jeopardize this recovery right now. - Bill Cheney Quotes

As long as unemployment is relatively high ... the Fed is under no pressure to start tightening. Right now, you have to think they've really won the war on inflation -- they're at least as worried about deflation as inflation at this point. They're not going to do anything that would jeopardize this recovery right now.

We're not only stuck in a soft patch; we're spinning our wheels. To get back to full employment, we need a lot more demand, and that's hard to see coming anytime soon from either domestic or international sources. - Bill Cheney Quotes

We're not only stuck in a soft patch; we're spinning our wheels. To get back to full employment, we need a lot more demand, and that's hard to see coming anytime soon from either domestic or international sources.

The bottom line is, any number over 50 is encouraging. The fact that it's a little less than the consensus was expecting I don't think is that big of a deal. - Bill Cheney Quotes

The bottom line is, any number over 50 is encouraging. The fact that it's a little less than the consensus was expecting I don't think is that big of a deal.

Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.

The Fed chairman has a lot of latitude to do things the way he wants to. I don't see why he wouldn't carry the day the way he wants to. - Bill Cheney Quotes

The Fed chairman has a lot of latitude to do things the way he wants to. I don't see why he wouldn't carry the day the way he wants to.

It would be kind of like when they put through a substantial emergency rate cut when the market crashed in 1987. I don't think it is evidence of panic to treat what happened yesterday as an emergency. It's an emergency on many levels. - Bill Cheney Quotes

It would be kind of like when they put through a substantial emergency rate cut when the market crashed in 1987. I don't think it is evidence of panic to treat what happened yesterday as an emergency. It's an emergency on many levels.

We were expecting to celebrate New Year's and instead got slapped with a pink slip. - Bill Cheney Quotes

We were expecting to celebrate New Year's and instead got slapped with a pink slip.

There must be some serious gains going on in either profits or wage rates. If it's going to profits, we should see more capital spending and hiring ahead, and if it's going to wages or lower prices, that should sustain consumption growth. Either way, it's good for the outlook. - Bill Cheney Quotes

There must be some serious gains going on in either profits or wage rates. If it's going to profits, we should see more capital spending and hiring ahead, and if it's going to wages or lower prices, that should sustain consumption growth. Either way, it's good for the outlook.

Corporations may be ultra-cautious, but at least they're not slashing jobs, and that's a net positive. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Corporations may be ultra-cautious, but at least they're not slashing jobs, and that's a net positive.

Many businesses see statistics showing economic growth as a cruel joke. Competition is still brutal, wages are still rising, prices are still flat or falling, and profits are as hard to find as they were a year ago. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Many businesses see statistics showing economic growth as a cruel joke. Competition is still brutal, wages are still rising, prices are still flat or falling, and profits are as hard to find as they were a year ago.

Regardless of what happens to energy prices and interest rates, homebuilding is going to happen and that's going to affect the national statistics but not by a huge amount ... it sort of disappears in the context of the national economy. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Regardless of what happens to energy prices and interest rates, homebuilding is going to happen and that's going to affect the national statistics but not by a huge amount ... it sort of disappears in the context of the national economy.

I think the job market is on a roll. - Bill Cheney Quotes

I think the job market is on a roll.

Job

Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in.

Force

We're still looking at job growth, but not enough to prevent unemployment from rising. If there were no special factors explaining this, it would be a rather dramatic piece of news. - Bill Cheney Quotes

We're still looking at job growth, but not enough to prevent unemployment from rising. If there were no special factors explaining this, it would be a rather dramatic piece of news.

Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting.

If unemployment sticks at about 6.0 percent and starts coming down, the Fed will probably feel it has to start tightening fairly soon. - Bill Cheney Quotes

If unemployment sticks at about 6.0 percent and starts coming down, the Fed will probably feel it has to start tightening fairly soon.

With the tide turning on job growth, consumer sentiment going into the holidays is far better than last year, even if it's not quite happy days are here again. - Bill Cheney Quotes

With the tide turning on job growth, consumer sentiment going into the holidays is far better than last year, even if it's not quite happy days are here again.

There is a certain appeal to going to a nice round number like 5 percent. But if we get some bad inflation numbers, then they won't stop at 5 percent. - Bill Cheney Quotes

There is a certain appeal to going to a nice round number like 5 percent. But if we get some bad inflation numbers, then they won't stop at 5 percent.

Record or near-record trade deficits spark howls of concern about the threat posed to the economic expansion, but like inflation, the trade deficit's bark has been far worse than its bite. April's deficit, another near record, simply shows that we are still importing like there is no tomorrow. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Record or near-record trade deficits spark howls of concern about the threat posed to the economic expansion, but like inflation, the trade deficit's bark has been far worse than its bite. April's deficit, another near record, simply shows that we are still importing like there is no tomorrow.

I don't think it really suggests there is any inflation developing -- a 0.3 percent rise in wages is pretty manageable. But it's a pretty positive report; it suggests that the overall jobs market is pretty healthy. - Bill Cheney Quotes

I don't think it really suggests there is any inflation developing -- a 0.3 percent rise in wages is pretty manageable. But it's a pretty positive report; it suggests that the overall jobs market is pretty healthy.

The Greenspan Fed has inaction down to a fine art. They stood by through much of the late 1990s, allowing a very beneficial reduction in unemployment without suffering any inflationary consequences. When they do have to move, they do so quickly and surgically. - Bill Cheney Quotes

The Greenspan Fed has inaction down to a fine art. They stood by through much of the late 1990s, allowing a very beneficial reduction in unemployment without suffering any inflationary consequences. When they do have to move, they do so quickly and surgically.

People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking. - Bill Cheney Quotes

People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.

Oil producers are squabbling over production cuts, and a price war seems possible. If they can't get their act together, prices could fall further and stay down for another three to six months. That's more money in consumers' pockets and even more stimulus for the economy. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Oil producers are squabbling over production cuts, and a price war seems possible. If they can't get their act together, prices could fall further and stay down for another three to six months. That's more money in consumers' pockets and even more stimulus for the economy.

Given the volatility of the report, I don't put a lot of credence in the forecasts. The headline number is the news and the fact that it went up signals that the recovery isn't falling apart. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Given the volatility of the report, I don't put a lot of credence in the forecasts. The headline number is the news and the fact that it went up signals that the recovery isn't falling apart.

A lot of people must still be sitting on the sidelines. This kind of job growth will encourage them, but I don't see it sparking a surge in wage costs. We still have a lot more room for job growth before we have to worry about venturing into dangerous inflationary territory. - Bill Cheney Quotes

A lot of people must still be sitting on the sidelines. This kind of job growth will encourage them, but I don't see it sparking a surge in wage costs. We still have a lot more room for job growth before we have to worry about venturing into dangerous inflationary territory.

I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter. - Bill Cheney Quotes

I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter.

This big swing in defense spending had to do with mobilizing the National Guard for the hurricanes (in the third quarter), but it still seems implausibly large when you're fighting a war. I'm not 100 percent sure I believe it, and I certainly don't think it will happen again. - Bill Cheney Quotes

This big swing in defense spending had to do with mobilizing the National Guard for the hurricanes (in the third quarter), but it still seems implausibly large when you're fighting a war. I'm not 100 percent sure I believe it, and I certainly don't think it will happen again.

You are seeing a large number of people coming out of the woodwork because there are jobs to be found. People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking. - Bill Cheney Quotes

You are seeing a large number of people coming out of the woodwork because there are jobs to be found. People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.

I think the job market is on a roll. Businesses are doing pretty well these days. Profits are growing nicely. I think businesses are at a point where they feel more comfortable adding people. - Bill Cheney Quotes

I think the job market is on a roll. Businesses are doing pretty well these days. Profits are growing nicely. I think businesses are at a point where they feel more comfortable adding people.

We have solid job growth, but no significant inflationary pressures. - Bill Cheney Quotes

We have solid job growth, but no significant inflationary pressures.

The U.S. economy is cruising along now. - Bill Cheney Quotes

The U.S. economy is cruising along now.

Monetary policy is the perfect instrument for these circumstances. The Fed can keep pushing as needed, but still can turn on a dime and pull back as soon as spending starts to rebound. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Monetary policy is the perfect instrument for these circumstances. The Fed can keep pushing as needed, but still can turn on a dime and pull back as soon as spending starts to rebound.

The moment they think there are jobs there, they'll be out looking and the employment rate will start heading up again. I think that's on the whole a good sign at this point in the cycle. - Bill Cheney Quotes

The moment they think there are jobs there, they'll be out looking and the employment rate will start heading up again. I think that's on the whole a good sign at this point in the cycle.

Sooner or later rates will have to come back up to at least a 'neutral' level. But for now they've got the monetary policy lever just about where they want it, and it makes sense to do as little as possible for as long as possible. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Sooner or later rates will have to come back up to at least a 'neutral' level. But for now they've got the monetary policy lever just about where they want it, and it makes sense to do as little as possible for as long as possible.

I don't believe anybody thinks [this sort of] productivity growth can continue. What that means is we'll soon have a lot of job growth. - Bill Cheney Quotes

I don't believe anybody thinks [this sort of] productivity growth can continue. What that means is we'll soon have a lot of job growth.

Every time you see another indicator that they (consumers) are still spending, that's encouraging. - Bill Cheney Quotes

Every time you see another indicator that they (consumers) are still spending, that's encouraging.

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